Novara Research is publishing data.
The analysis behind Foundations of Conviction is now available as a research API.
TL;DR
Foundations of Conviction, Novara’s Bitcoin power law research data product, is now live on RapidAPI.
Bitcoin price remains in “cheapness levels” we have rarely sustained since early 2023.
June 20, 2026 @ $63,431 (p9.9):
Bitcoin now sits more than 53% discounted relative to its implied path (~$134,170). p9.9 implies Bitcoin is near the lower tail of its historical distribution.
Daily Drift Diagnostics (2026-06-20)
Exponent: 5.6083 (−0.738%) — trend below our central anchor.
R²: 0.9436 (+0.0742%) — strengthening above our model baseline.
Our first data product
When we launched this Substack, our goal was to bring attention to the Bitcoin power law by focusing on a single question:
“Is Bitcoin’s structure still intact?”
We introduced our methodology through introductory posts on the power law, followed by regular market check-ins and, over time, more analysis-rich articles. As the research compounded, so did the engineering stack behind it.
Behind the scenes, we were building the infrastructure required to support this work: market data pipelines, automated testing, daily snapshots, and versioned releases to keep the research fresh and reproducible.
We even built a command-line tool and wired it all into a custom Slackbot so we could access our own research, on-demand, from anywhere.
We set out to build a foundation of knowledge for understanding the Bitcoin power law. Through that work, and through our compounding engineering efforts, we ended up building something more durable:
A Bitcoin power law research data product.
Live on RapidAPI
Starting today, Foundations of Conviction is live on RapidAPI.
The same core metrics we use internally are now snapshotted daily and packaged for subscribers.
How it works
At 7:45 UTC each day, our research pipeline prepares a new daily report.
That report analyzes the prior calendar day of Bitcoin market data. As the pipeline runs, Foundations of Conviction metrics are compiled, packaged, and snapshotted. The latest snapshot is then made available to RapidAPI subscribers, based on product tier.
Pricing
We offer two tiers on RapidAPI today.
Basic - $2.50/mo
Price, implied price, deviation percentage
Price deviation percentile
Latest snapshot exponent and r²
Pro (recommended) - $4.00/mo
Everything in Basic
Full drift diagnostics with percentiles, day-over-day changes
Rolling 2Y and 4Y exponent and r² with percentiles, day-over-day changes
“Scaling-shock” metrics RIS, RIS percentile, and transition score
Quotas and overage rates are listed on the RapidAPI Pricing tab. We expect to add more pricing options in the future as we explore additional distribution channels.
Conviction and Patience
Prioritize the underlying structure. Ignore the noise.
Foundations of Conviction is designed to help answer one question:
“Is Bitcoin’s long-run structure still intact?”
Use your own interpretation. Form your own conviction.